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Dmitri Tkachenko

As Canadians get older, economy gets weaker - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

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    "Statistics Canada projection shows a sharp decrease that will continue for at least the next 20 years. Employment growth since 1976 has averaged 1.6 per cent a year, while the population grew at a rate of 1.1 per cent. That extra half a percentage point added roughly 0.3-0.4 percentage points to the average growth rate of real per capita income above what it would have been otherwise. Not only is this source of growth about to disappear, demographic aging is going to start being a negative contributor to economic growth: fewer workers mean less output. One of the first places we'll see the effects of population aging is its effect on the government budget balance. Higher output per worker would help compensate for a reduction in the number of workers, so productivity will become an increasingly important policy priority. But in the short and medium term, there is no quick fix. "
Carolyne Wang

Economist's View: Why Does Inequality Matter? - 0 views

  • We know that a society with perfect equality does not grow at the fastest possible rate. When everyone gets an equal share of income, people lose the incentive to try and get ahead of others.
  • We also know that a society where one person has almost everything while everyone else struggles to survive—the most unequal distribution of income imaginable—will not grow at the fastest possible rate either. Thus, the growth-maximising level of inequality must lie somewhere between these two extremes
  • As Lane Kenworthy notes, when we look at how inequality has changed in various rich nations over the last several decades, "it turns out that there is no relationship between changes in income inequality and changes in the absolute incomes of low-end households. The reason is that income growth for poor households has come almost entirely via increases in net government transfers." Thus, nations where lower income households have fared better are also the nations where income transfers have been the highest.
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  • One hope for turning this around in the future is education
  • Unfortunately, we won't know the answer until we actually improve education, then wait to see how our better educated young fare when they graduate, a process that will take decades. It will do little to alleviate existing levels of inequality.
  • redistribution of income is the only answer to our inequality problem
  • But won't such policies lower economic growth? No. Given the present, elevated level of inequality, a reduction is unlikely to have much of an impact on incentives that are important for economic growth.
  • If we want to preserve a growing and socially healthy economy, and avoid moving to points on the inequality curve curve associated with lower growth, then we will need to do much more redistribution of income than we have done over the last several decades. That means the wealthy will no longer get it all, or at least almost all; they will be asked to share economic growth with the workers who helped to bring it about, workers who ought to be rewarded for their growing productivity.
  • sharing economic gains among all those who had a hand in creating them is the right thing to do
Steven Iarusci

Report cautions that over-indebted consumers can't drive economy - 0 views

  • a rate hike may come in the fall
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      Interest rates
  • the main message is that consumers cannot be the main engines of economic growth over the next couple of years,” the authors conclude. “Instead, the economy will have to rely on other sources of growth, such as exports and business investment.”
  • Canadians have “eased off the debt-accumulation throttle,”
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  • still net borrowers, meaning they borrow more than they save
  • consumer spending will not be the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters and the inevitable future rebalancing of monetary policy will be a shock to many households
  • some of the drop in household indebtedness is explained by strong income gains, not by debt repayment per se
  • sustainable personal growth is likely in a range of 4.0-4.5 per cent. Credit continues to grow at a pace that is two percentage points above that
  • the level of Canadian household debt — which in December officially surpassed those of our neighbours to the south — is unsustainable
  • total consumer debt load is reported to be about $1.5 trillion
  • Data released late last year suggested Canadians owed on average $112,000 — a figure that includes all kinds of debt, including mortgages — and a debt-to-income ratio of 150 per cent means they were spending $1,500 for every $1,000 in take-home pay
  • Factors that will moderate credit growth over the short term include spending fatigue, a soft landing in the housing market, stricter mortgage rules and Canadians preparing for the higher interest rates that are sure to come as the economy recovers.
dani tav

Government Collaboration Builds Growth - 0 views

  • effective local government would play in improving northeast Ohio's economic future
  • conomic competitiveness component of the Fund for Our Economic Future
  • government efficiency and collaboration are relevant and timely topics in our region
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  • We are beginning to see the positive results collaboration can bring, including significant savings to protect vital services and ensure our communities invest in innovation and education to create jobs and keep the region competitive in the global economy."
  • he rate of local government spending in Northeast Ohio is 70 times the region's population growth, 2.8 times its inflation rate and 2.4 times its economic output
  • government entities spend $20 billion to operate
  • ortheast Ohio residents have made it clear that more efficient local government is a regional priorit
  • collaboration of 100 foundations, organizations and philanthropists from across Northeast Ohio
Noah Schafer

Jobless rate, global uncertainty to test Tories' economic strategy - thestar.com - 0 views

  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada. One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament re
  • The new Conservative government’s business-friendly economic strategy will be tested by uncertain global conditions and a stubbornly high jobless rate in Canada.
  • n February, Canada’s output sank by 0.2 per cent, the worst monthly performance since May 2009.
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  • One of the first items on Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s agenda when Parliament returns will be reintroduction of a $278 billion budget that includes a sprinkling of social and economic spending and a plan to slay the budget deficit in several years. And the government will continue with a $6 billion corporate income tax cut.
  • Prospects for Canada are also complicated by expectations that spending by debt-burdened consumers could slow in 2011 and by the shut-off of the Conservatives’ two-year, $47 billion emergency stimulus program.
  • “We’re seeing continued uncertainty and concerns still with respect to the Eurozone and where it’s headed,” he said. Uncertainty on economic growth is also being fanned by volatile energy markets and the questionable U.S. business rebound, Wright said.
  • “The risks still lie outside the Canadian border, which as we’re well aware can have a spillover effect on Canada,” said Royal Bank chief economist Craig Wright.
  • With government spending slowing, the Conservatives have staked a great deal on their view that the business community will pick up the slack and stimulate the economy with expansion-minded investments.
  • Besides phasing in corporate income tax cuts worth $14 billion by 2012, the Conservatives in recent years have provided a wide range of investment incentives for business, including easing taxes on small business and manufacturers. In all, tax cuts for business by the Conservatives total an estimated $60 billion by 2013.
  • both Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney have pointedly talked about the urgent need for more spending on machinery and equipment by companies.
  • But many are not convinced, with some Canadians saying the government would be smarter to tie tax incentives directly to company investments to ensure that corporations don’t just pocket the extra profits.
  • Speaking of corporate tax cuts, Canadian Association of Social Workers spokesperson Fred Phelps said it would be one thing “if corporations turned around and invested those funds into the economy.” But he said that hasn’t been happening in recent years. “What really has driven us out of the recession,” he said, “is spending by households and government, not business.”
Carolyne Wang

Is income inequality just business as usual? - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

    • Carolyne Wang
       
      The visuals in this link show the distribution of wealth among the highest income earners in Canada.
  • Professor Richard Wilkinson just finished a tour of Canada, discussing his research findings from the past 30 years or so. A social epidemiologist, he has gathered international data showing the very tight correlation between life expectancy and income inequality, between literacy and income inequality, between rates of incarceration and income inequality, etc. etc. Over and over again he shows a range of issues that have a strong social gradient which reveal that almost everybody is better off in a society with greater income equality, including the rich. You can see his presentation in Vancouver at this link. http://i.sfu.ca/TmyYCh
  • For most of the 20th century inequality in Canada - and in virtually all developed nations, actually - had been declining. By the 1980s that long term trend reversed. First because of recessions (where the bottom end of the spectrum lost ground) then because of rowth (when the top part of the income spectrum zoomed ahead). So for the past generation inequality has grown in Canada, in good times and bad.
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  • There are two reasons for hope. One is, oddly, the result of an aging population and the consequent shrinking pool of workers, which may push up wages for workers producing basic goods and services, not just those at the top of the skill spectrum. The other is a culture shift, where a growing number of boomers understand what is at play and start working with others to come up with ways to ensure there will be a resilient middle class for the next generation.
  • When the cost of something goes up, we tend to consume less of it. So, since living wages are higher than minimum wages, employers are likely to hire fewer workers. A living wage campaign is part of the effort to raise the visibility of a sorry development in Canada. The saying that "the best social policy is a job" is in many ways true; but a new reality has developed over the past decade or so - that you can't necessarily escape poverty by working. Working full-time full-year at a minimum wage job, as many adults do, condems you to poverty.
  • international statistics show that poverty rates are lowest where income inequality is lowest too. That can be because of culture -- the wage spectrum is compressed, as in Japan, where it is unseemly to get too far ahead of others in pay -- or through active redistribution programs, where taxes and the services they buy redistribute incomes and opportunities to try to level the playing field a bit more.
  • The Mincome experiment in Manitoba in the mid 1970s, the MacDonald Commission i n the mid 1980s, and the House Report from Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 1990s all had proposals for providing a basic income. Only Manitoba tried it, as a pilot project, for a few years. The problem with the guaranteed income idea is at what rate you set it, and at what rate you tax it back. It could remove the stigma of income support programs, but it could just as easily be a costly experiment that, essentially, guarantees poverty. Also, as Dr. Wilkinson has suggested, at some point on the GDP per capita curve, income inequality is no longer about material deprivation, but rather one of psycho-social responses. We are, after all, pack animals.
  • We can redress some of the vagaries of the market through public policies, but the root cause of growing inequality is how different peoples' work is valued. IN a slow growth environment, which seems to be the foreseeable future for Canada, it will become harder and harder for those at the top of corporate structures to take the types of increases they have been commanding in the marketplace and expect unionized workers to be happy about losing their pension, benefits and wage increases, and expect low-end workers to essentially stay put or lose more ground. Two things can happen - those at the top start moderating their increases; or those in the middle and the bottom start seeing solid increases, particularly as the wave of retirements starts accelerating. The problem with rising incomes, generally, is that usually goes along with rising prices; and we're about to host the largest cohort of retirees we've ever had in history, a group that lives on fixed and low incomes, to whom rising prices are toxic. So how will the highest priced workers get away witih demanding more in that context I wonder?
  • Historically, increasing economic growth first deliver rising inequality, then lowering inequality (Simon Kuznets' famous work back in the 1950s). That's still true of developing nations - economic growth is first badly distributed, then leads to demands for greater equality.
  • We can raise our kids more equitably - but it will take more taxes. We can have less of a winner take all society - but it will require some people at the top to trim their expectations. We can beat this in small ways, but we also need leaders to express the way forward. In the US they have Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and politicians leading the way. We're waiting for more people like Ed Clarke, the CEO of TD Bank, to weigh in on how to make Canada fairer (his suggestion is higher taxes on the rich).
Kiruban Mahadeva

Canada 2011 Budget: Flaherty Budget Speech (Text) - Bloomberg - 1 views

  • The global economy is still fragile. The U.S. and our other trading partners are facing challenges. Compared to other countries, Canada's economy is performing very well-but our continued recovery is by no means assured. Many threats remain.
  • Securing our recovery from the global recession The Next Phase of Canada's Economic Action Plan is critically important
  • Now is not the time for instability. It would make it harder for Canadian businesses to plan and to expand. It would drive investment away to other countries. It would jeopardize the gains we have made.
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  • We will keep taxes low. We will undertake additional targeted investments to support jobs and growth
  • massive tax increases
  • We will not give in to Opposition demands to impose
  • This reckless policy would lead to continuing deficits and higher taxes on all Canadians. It would stall our recovery, kill hundreds of thousands of jobs and set families back.
  • Sustained growth comes from the private sector. We will help businesses to create jobs. We will not raise taxes on growth.
  • Since July 2009, the Canadian economy has created more than 480,000 new jobs-more than were lost during the recession
  • we remain concerned about the number of Canadians looking for work
  • We need to keep protecting and creating jobs now
  • Keeping taxes low A key part of that foundation is low taxes.
  • Our government has delivered tax relief for all Canadians
  • Our tax cuts are also helping employers to invest, grow and create jobs.
  • Our commitment to low taxes is supported by a strong consensus: that protecting Canada's tax advantage is key to securing our recovery.
  • Canadian industries Even so, in the current global economic climate, many businesses remain hesitant to invest and to hire.
  • Our government will take further action to encourage them to expand and create jobs.
  • The Hiring Credit for Small Business will provide a one-year EI break for some 525,000 Canadian small businesses
  • Expanding international trade Beyond this, we will promote new export opportunities for all Canadian businesses
  • We need to keep expanding our access to foreign markets, to create new jobs here at home.
  • We will provide greater financial security for Canadians, and practical help to make ends meet.
Steven Iarusci

Canadians load up on mortgages, cut card debt - 0 views

  • The bank set aside $145million in provisions for credit losses, down $104-million as more customers repaid their loans.
    • Steven Iarusci
       
      BMO is the bank in question.
  • consumer credit-card balances are declining as bank customers start to heed warnings about taking on too much debt
  • On the residential mortgage side, Mr. Downe said he expects to see growth start to "soften" in the coming months
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  • record household debt levels have left this country vulnerable to economic shocks
  • the Canadian banks will report a slight increase in profit for the quarter as they contend with the impact of declining consumer borrowing, moderating capital markets activity and other headwinds.
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  • With domestic household debt levels hovering close to where they were in the United States prior to the financial crisis, many observers are warning that Canadians need to start paying down debt if the economy is remain on level footing
  • Canadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • anadian consumers continue to pile on mortgage debt despite repeated warnings that they need to crank back on borrowing if this country is to avoid a painful real estate correction
  • growth in the overall home loan market "is continuing to be more robust,"
  • Canada's fourth-largest lender on Wednesday kicked off second-quarter bank earnings season with a 7.5% increase in profit on the back of lower provisions for bad loans
Mike Seo

Jobless rate to be at or above 7% through 2014, TD warns - The Globe and Mail - 1 views

  • Canada's jobless rate is projected to be 7.7 per cent this year, down from the 2010 level, and will ease gradually to 7.4 per cent in 2012, 7.2 per cent in 2013, and 7 per cent in 2012, Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said Tuesday in a new forecast.
  • Noting Canada's stronger-than-expected economic growth to date, TD economists said in a new quarterly report that they expected more modest growth for the rest of this year and next. "The end to federal government stimulus remains a wild card to the outlook in the second half of 2011," they said.
  • "We have incorporated a moderate drag on growth as stimulus programs are set to expire in March of this year. However, there is a risk that government spending could contract much more significantly in the second half of 2011."
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  • the share of mortgage in arrears 90 days or more continued to climb through 2011.
Chris Lee

We're ignoring inequality at our peril - The Globe and Mail - 0 views

  • The richest 1 per cent accounted for a third (32 per cent) of all income gains from economic growth between 1997 and 2007. This is four times the share of growth in the 1960s, and double the share of growth in the Roaring Twenties
  • The richest 1 per cent accounted for 14 per cent of all personal income by 2007 -- levels comparable to the mid 1920s.
  • Well if hard work and a good education was the fool-proof recipe for success, the middle class should have seen big gains in the past generation. This generation of workers is better educated than any previous generation, and they are working more hours per household than ever before. But median pre-tax incomes were essentially at the same level in 2007 as in 1980 (about $55,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars).
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  • Rising inequality, in good times and bad, is another inconvenient truth of our era, and every bit as unsustainable.
Ilia Merkoulovitch

UDPATE: Canada Budget Watchdog Sees Deficit Through Fiscal 2016 - WSJ.com - 0 views

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    Odds are very slim for the Canadian government to balance the budget by 2015. Though growth is projected at 2.9% for 2011, it is projected lower around 2% for 2012 and 2013
Ilia Merkoulovitch

Government can't balance books by 2014: watchdog - thestar.com - 1 views

  • The Conservatives, who are running a $30-billion deficit this year, said in the March 22 budget that they could erase the deficit by 2015.
  • The likelihood of realizing budgetary balance or better in 2014-15 is approximately 20 per cent and approximately 35 per cent in 2015-16
  • The parliamentary budget office forecasts annual budget deficits between now and 2015 totalling $128 billion
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  • Unemployment, now at 7.6 per cent, will remain considerably higher between now and 2015
  • Sluggish U.S. growth combined with the Canadian dollar remaining above parity will subdue near-term growth in the Canadian economy and restrain the decline in the unemployment rate.”
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    Government won't be able to get rid of deficit by 2015 as planned
Kiruban Mahadeva

Jesse Kline: U.S. looks to Canada to fix its debt crisis | Full Comment | National Post - 1 views

  • In 1994, Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 67%, but thanks to sound fiscal management, deep spending cuts and sustained economic growth, this number was reduced to 29% by 2009
  • Canadian experience shows that government can balance the books by making significant spending cuts, and that can be done without having an adverse effect on economic growth and levels of employment
Heshani Makalande

Housing affordability getting worse, RBC says - Moneyville.ca - 1 views

  • Despite two quarters of increasing affordability thanks to lower mortgage rates in the second half of 2010, housing affordability will remain an issue for Canadians in 2011, said a report by RBC Economics released Friday.
  • “We believe we have now entered a period of steady increases in homeownership costs, which will act to restrain growth in homebuyer demand in Canada for the quarters to come,”
  • Declining mortgage rates mean that the second half of 2010 showed improving affordability. The first quarter of 2011 saw mortgage rates remain flat, but house prices started to accelerate upward across Canada
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  • In the key Toronto market, housing affordability measures rose by 0.8 per cent for a 1,200 square foot detached bungalow in the first quarter.
  • It now takes 47.5 per cent of household income to service the cost of mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities.
  • The average price of a bungalow in Toronto was $486,900 and the qualifying income needed to purchase was $103,000. But that is light years away from the Vancouver market, where an average 1,200 square foot bungalow is $736,000 with a qualifying income needed of $136,900.
  • Affordability levels are expected to get worse as interest rates get higher this year, said RBC, warning that Vancouver may be “dangerously disconnected from prevailing local housing demand fundamentals.
  • “The risk of a sustained and widespread drop will be limited given our expectation of a positive economic context that will sustain growth in household income and a gradual pace of interest rate policy normalization,” said Hogue. In Ontario, the market looks to be on a “sustainable path” although it is likely to face headwinds in the coming months arising from interest rate increases and a tightening in mortgage regulations, said RBC.
Joey Keum

Canada Adds More Jobs Than Forecast as Unemployment Falls - Businessweek - 1 views

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    The Bank of Canada said last month economic growth is likely to slow to a 2 percent annual pace in the April-June period after a surge in the first quarter. The bank has also said there is "considerable monetary stimulus in place." The next meetings are May 31 and July 19.
Kiruban Mahadeva

The Canadian Press: Time for U.S. to deal with debt problem; spillover could hurt Canad... - 1 views

  • concerned about the mounting level of debt in the United States and its potential to slow Canada's recovery
  • when debt exceeds 90 per cent of GDP, economic growth will slow, and that is a situation facing most of Canada's major trading partners, particularly the U.S
  • as markets lose patience with the pace of deficit reduction, the result will be higher interest rates that impact all
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  • It's a transformation that sees emerging markets like China bound forward while advanced countries — Canada's traditional economic partners — muddle along through years of slow growth because of massive debt.
dani tav

Op-Ed: Canada's deflating economy - 1 views

  • The reason for the minimal GDP growth that we had was government spending increased over this period and government debt increased by about $139 billion.
  • Government Debt
  • The government is in a dilemma now. Despite the rosy forecasts they like to create showing how well our economy is doing there are reasons for major concerns.
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  • The government's attempt to continue economic growth by borrowing has failed. Canada's economy is going nowhere and we are farther behind because of government debt. The future does not look much better for Canada's economy.
  • Canada's net debt had grown to $582 billion, up from $516 billion two years earlier.
  • Government spending cannot continue to increase especially when it is financed by debt. The recession was started by economies overloaded with debt. Rather than deal with the imbalances government decided to increase spending "grow the economy" and create more debt. Now we are in a predicament that there are no tools left for governments to throw at the economic problems.
  • government borrowing huge amounts of money to bolster the economy
Alejandro Enamorado

ROHAC: Income inequality doesn't matter - Washington Times - 1 views

  • income inequality is not a useful measure. Measures of inequality tell us nothing about the living conditions of the poor, their health and their access to economic opportunity.
  • one should think primarily about lifting developing countries out of poverty rather than about reducing income disparities in wealthy countries.
  • Focusing on income inequality rather than drivers of poverty, obstacles to economic opportunity and systematic injustice obscures what really works and what does not in the realm of economic policy
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  • Putting in place restrictions on executive bonuses, taxing financial transactions and corporate profits does little to mitigate the flawed incentives that have led to exuberant financial booms. A genuine solution would consist of eliminating bailout guarantees to the banking sector, thus reducing the existing incentives for gambling with other people’s money.
  • the rise of cheap imports from countries such as China and new forms of large-scale retailing, epitomized by Wal-Mart and Sears, which have given the low-income groups access to goods that previously were enjoyed only by the rich. In terms of the actual material conditions of living, developed countries appear to be more equal than ever before.
  • growth of executive remuneration in the financial industry cannot be dissociated from a cozy relationship that has long existed between policymakers and bankers
dylan huber

Canada discovers trickle-up economics - 0 views

  • there’s been a massive transfer of income and wealth from Canada’s middle and lower class to the rich.
  • some degree of inequality is inevitable and even desirable (allowing bigger rewards for those making bigger contributions), the level of inequality that exists today in the Anglo-American countries — the United States, Britain and Canada — is extreme
  • virtually all the income growth in the last 30 years has gone to the top.
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  • less equal societies almost always have more violence, more disease, more mental health problems, higher infant mortality rates, reduced life expectancies, as well as less social cohesion.
  • average CEO was making about 25 times the average worker in the late 1970s, today’s average CEO makes roughly 250 times the average worker.
  • evidence linking extreme inequality with serious economic problems. The level of inequality reached in 2008 was virtually identical to that of 1929, suggesting that large concentrations of wealth at the top create a dynamic leading to reckless financial speculation and Wall Street crashes
  • people in less equal societies have reduced social mobility.
  • the top-earning 1 per cent of Canadians almost doubled their share of national income, from 7.7 per cent to 13.8 per cent, over the past three decades.
dylan huber

Economic news fl ash: Inequality is complex - 0 views

  • in most places growth was more rapid at the top than at the bottom of the income distribution.
  • Canada's numbers were 0.9 and 1.6, the United States' 0.5 and 1.9.
  • incomes at the top grew more quickly than incomes at the bottom.
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  • deregulation, free trade, fiscal conservatism (yes, that would be neo-liberal conservatism) -are rewriting the post-war economic and social contract at the expense of the poor and to the benefit of the rich.
  • globalization may be playing a part.
  • Technology also plays a role
  • Changes in household size do seem to be part of the problem. In most countries, there are fewer people per household. Across the OECD, the number of households with only one head has risen from 15% to 20% of the total.
  • If more families are smaller and therefore not enjoying such economies of scale, more are going to be poorer.
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